[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On May 19, nickel prices fell by over 1,000 yuan, with domestic total retail sales of consumer goods up 5.1% YoY

SMM Nickel News on May 19:

Macro News:

(1) According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,717.4 billion yuan, up 5.1% YoY. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3,354.8 billion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,184.5 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 14,700.5 billion yuan, up 5.2% YoY.

(2) Recently, the US has successively reached trade agreements with the UK and China, significantly easing global trade tensions. However, uncertainties surrounding tariffs still linger. On Sunday local time, US Treasury Secretary Bessent warned that some of the US's trading partners may soon face another significant increase in tariff rates. In an interview with the media, Bessent stated that if countries do not engage in "good faith" negotiations and fail to reach trade agreements before the tariff moratorium expires in early July, tariff rates will soon revert to "Liberation Day" levels.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price ranges from 123,850 to 126,150 yuan/mt, with an average price of 125,000 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1,125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No.1 nickel is 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The premium and discount quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 200 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) maintained a fluctuating trend during the daytime session. As of 11:30, the closing price was 124,100 yuan/mt, down 1.27%. In terms of inventory, as of May 16, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,924 mt to 195,222 mt on a single day, while domestic SHFE inventory decreased by 66 mt to 27,742 mt.

Currently, nickel prices are mainly influenced by "intensified policy disruptions and deepening supply-demand imbalance," maintaining a fluctuating pattern in the short term, with a support level at 122,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level at 128,000 yuan/mt. In the medium and long term, the trend is expected to be weak.